Catching On?
A while back we noted that top Clinton advisor Harold Ickes had admonished the press not to use the phrase "super delegates" but instead to employ what he claims is the more accurate "automatic delegates." The Clinton campaign has pushed for this change of phrase on the thinking that calling them "super delegates" carries a negative connotation that somehow they're more powerful or privileges than other delegates. And that's important because their path to the nomination will almost certainly have to rely on super delegates going overwhelmingly for Clinton despite Obama's having the majority of pledged delegates.
Got that?
Anyway, has the AP gotten the message? In tonight's AP report about Obama's new delegates in Iowa reporter Mike Glover has adopted the Clinton campaign "automatic delegate" formulation.
Now, sometimes spinning campaigns come up with phrases that are so heavy-handedness and tendentious that it's just ridiculous -- the "death tax", "personal accounts" for Social Security privatization, etc. In this case, I think you've probably got to have your head pretty deep in the delegat-ology weeds to have any sense of whether it matters to use one term over another.
But I think it's a good journalistic principle not to switch terminology in the midst of an election campaign or public policy debate at the bidding of one party or another, unless someone makes an extremely good case that the existing word choices are patently misleading. And doing it at the behest of one party to the dispute is almost always bad practice. Otherwise the journalists whose job it is to sift through the spin become its messengers, wittingly or not.
--Josh Marshall
Rejiggering the Math
I mentioned last week that we should pay close attention to those county and state conventions in the caucus states, because in many cases the delegate numbers we're working with now are only estimates subject to these later conventions where the real decisions are actually made. Now comes news out of Iowa that after the county conventions that met today Barack Obama appears to be on track to net seven additional delegates out of the state.
From what the article says, the pick up does not appear to be directly at the expense of Sen. Clinton but rather a result of picking up support of a large percentage of the delegates John Edwards won back in January.
To give some context to these numbers, Sen. Clinton's final net delegate haul out of her decisive win in Ohio was only 9 delegates.
--Josh Marshall
Tea Leaves
Rasmussen's daily tracking poll of the Dem race shows a sizeable tightening of the race -- from an 8 point Obama lead to a 1 point lead in a single day. It could be noise or the first sign of damage from the Wright imbroglio.
--Josh Marshall
Money, Money, Money
Top Hillary fundraiser pressures Dean to "exercise some leadership" on Florida and Michigan.
--Josh Marshall
Time or Geography?
TPM Reader EM writes ...
I keep hearing people say that Obama's percentage of the white vote is decreasing markedly, including David Brooks on The NewsHour, and Michael Duffy on Washington Week (sorry--old habits). I haven't seen stats on this, but I just did a little non-mathematician math. If, as I've heard reported more than once, 25% of Hillary's MS vote was Limbaugh Republicans, the white vote that would actually support a Democrat looks somewhat different. The total vote was 420,751, and Hillary got 38% or around 160,000 votes. Give her the 10% of the black vote that she won and take away the Limbaugh votes, and that leaves her with around 120,000 white Democratic votes. Give Obama his 25% of the white vote, and that comes to about 65,000 white votes for him. The percentages? about 65% Clinton white, non-Limbaugh votes, 35% Obama white votes. That's not a great number for Obama, but it's considerably better than the one getting play.
Speaking for myself I think this 'Limbaugh Democrat' line is an interpretive rathole which is at best self-serving and mainly a distraction from the reality of all elections which is how many votes each candidate got. But you don't have to get into this Limbaugh stuff to see why this decreasing white vote theory is nonsense. Perhaps there are national polls that show Obama with a decreasing share of the white vote though the aggregate national polls from Gallup and Rasmussen show no sign of it. But to draw this conclusion on the basis of the vote in Mississippi is to show an almost perverse ignorance of the country's history.
Mississippi is arguably the most racially polarized state in the US. Two or three other Deep South states certainly give it a run for its money. But given the state's history and political present it should not surprise anyone that the primary results were as polarized as they were (Whites -- Clinton 70%, Obama 26%; Blacks Clinton 8%, Obama 92%). The difference here isn't one of change over time; it's change over geography. When Hillary and Obama go up against each other in the most racially polarized state in the country, you're going to get a really racially polarized result.
That's not a mystery. It's a statement of the obvious.
It's true that neighboring Alabama is similar to Mississippi in many ways. So how much did things change between Alabama on Super Tuesday and Mississippi this week?
Not a lot. Among white voters, Clinton did even better than she did in Mississippi, beating Obama 72% to 25%. Figuring in the margin of error in the exit polls themselves, those numbers are identical. But if you want to look at the exact numbers, it's actually Clinton whose numbers among white voters ever so slightly diminished.
Maybe the deterioration will start now. Who knows? But based on the information available to date, the theory is nonsense, a product of reporters who don't bother to come up to speed on the politics in the different states in question.
--Josh Marshall
A Modest Snarkposal
From TPM Reader EM ...
What drives me crazy is how this could have been avoided so easily if Wright was the slightest bit media-savvy. Had he merely controlled his tongue and limited himself to advocating an attack on Iran to encourage massive worldwide Muslim attacks leading to a fulfillment of the biblical prophecy of end-times and bringing about Armageddon and the summary slaughter of every Jew, Muslim, Catholic, and non-believer on the planet while rapturing him and his flock up to heaven, then followed it up by denouncing Catholics as cult members and blaming Hurricane Katrina on gay people, this story wouldn't be metastasizing like this. One five minute milquetoast repudiation by Obama and it would all be behind him.But what does Wright do instead? He spews this vile "God damn America" bile. What a psycho.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Clip Show Extravaganza #7
More on Mitt Romney's dog fixation, Mark Penn loses his remaining dignity, and Lou Dobbs loses his mind, all in today's episode of TPMtv ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Six Weeks of Expectations Massaging
According to a well-placed Election Central source, Obama has personally told donors that losing Pennsylvania by less than 10 points will be a "victory."
--David Kurtz
As long as we're at it, TPM Reader DZ ...
A couple of points:1. As an Orthodox Jew, I have heard pulpit rabbis say some offensive things -- and I'm not talking about things that are part of normative Jewish law like rules regarding gentiles -- but all sorts of thoedicy-type claims about why God allowed particular tragedies to occur, usually involving very Jew-centric views of the world and often ascribing the worst of intentions to gentiles or non-Orthodox Jews. Nonetheless, I never felt the inclination to walk out mid-speech or cut my ties to my synagogue or the rabbi himself. Maybe I am applying a double standard here, but to me my rabbi's political views are just one narrow aspect of a broad relationship I have with both him and the institution he leads. Based on Obama's statements, I assume that this is Obama's view of his relationship with Wright.
2. The question is whether Obama should be doing more. One option is for him to give a Speech sort of like the one Romney gave regarding Mormonism. The reason why this might be successful is that it is precisely Obama's oratory that has given me and many others the comfort that he doesn't agree with Wright's views. He did this most clearly in his convention speech where he convincingly painted a picture of national unity and togetherness transcending race and religion that is so contrary to Wright's views. I think he can give a speech touching on the same themes while at the same time explicitly rejecting Wright's views and explaining his relationship. Given Obama's strength as an orator, I think it can only help.
--Josh Marshall
And now TPM Reader KB ...
Don't over react to this pastor stuff. Yeah, it's problematic. But Obama has said he does not agree with everything the guy has said. And if he needs to make a stronger statement I'm sure he will at some point. But right now reading TPM is like watching a focus group of DLC democrats freak out every time Sean Hannity goes boo! Please calm down and buck up. The phrase "death blow" from that reader email is just so off base. Right now Obama is still the odds on favorite for the nomination, and still the favorite in November. This is another complication that requires a smart media strategy. That's the category of storm we are dealing with. This too shall pass.
--Josh Marshall
Vote Bamboozlers Don't Fade Away
Vote-suppression guru Hans von Spakovsky is out of government, but he's still on the "voter fraud" (read, minority disenfranchisement) case.
--David Kurtz
House Dems Pass FISA Bill
The pro-civil-liberties Democratic version of the surveillance bill just passed the House.
The final vote was 213-195.
There are all sorts of things about this version that are better than the White House/Senate Dem version, not least of which is no telecom immunity.
Late Update: The final tally has been revised to 213-197.
--David Kurtz
Au Contraire
TPM Reader JS responds to JB ...
I go to church every Sunday, and frankly, I never received the memo that says you're obligated to agree with everything that a pastor says in a sermon. I thought the idea that you're allowed to actually disagree with him or her is inherently "American". So what's JB's problem, again? Let me get this straight. This guy JB is switching his vote from Obama to Clinton because Obama's pastor, from whom he's publicly disagreed on repeated occasions, made inflammatory remarks during a sermon in a service that Obama never attended. Can we please try to wrap our minds around the stupidity of that notion? If JB loved America as much as he apparently claims, he'd take his vote a hell of a lot more seriously than that.
Late Update: TPM Reader JM:
Agree wholeheartedly with JS, and completely fail to understand the hyperventilation over this issue. I mean, I saw Chris Matthews (Chris Matthews!) on the Today Show this morning saying that everyone knows that this guy doesn't represent Obama's views and that voters understand that you shouldn't necessarily be held accountable for everything and anything any of your associates utters in public. You know you're deep in the weeds when Tweety is your voice of reason.I think that this drawn-out primary season is starting to drive people nuts.
and TPM Reader MM:
Oh Good Lord,The problem with we Democrats is that every new issue that comes up gets us running around in circles, flapping our hands and screaming that the sky is falling.
A big part of why I voted for Obama is that he is NOT like that -- he stays cool under pressure, and he plays the long game.
The Wright thing will get worked out. The candidacy will survive. Obama is not John Kerry (he's a much more gifted politician, for one thing, and a better strategist).
Bottom line: we have two strong candidates who are in a real struggle for the nomination. Interest in the election is the highest it's been in years. That's healthy in a democracy. Much healthier than the kind of easy coronation we've gotten used to.
Everybody take a deep breath. The sky is still firmly overhead.
--Josh Marshall
Is Wright a "Death Blow" to Obama?
Like a number of emailers, TPM Reader JB is wringing his hands over Obama's Rev. Wright:
The Wright time bomb appears to be detonating, now that the horse race narrative has stalled and the media needs new material. The inadequacy of Obama's response is deeply discouraging. I was very excited about Obama, but I suddenly think Wright is going to deal a death blow to him on the "electibility" front. Michelle Obama's comments and now the man who lead him to Jesus is saying "God Damn America", and all BO can say is "I disagree"? He has to thow him under the bus and then back up over him again, but it does not appear that he will. Not clear it would even help that much, given the depth and length of their relationship. Sad to say, but it's best this happen now rather than in October. As distasteful as her tactics have been, I suddenly think we may be better off in November with Hillary. Wright is cancer.Late Update: TPM Reader KR defends JB:
No, no, no. JS doesn't get it. JB wasn't saying he's switching his vote at all, and certainly not because Obama's pastor made inflammatory remakrs during a sermon. JB is saying, equite accurately, that the Wright issue is a potential death blow to Obama's campaign unless Obama deals more forcefully with it than Obama has to date. What I think JB is saying is that the Wright problem will suck all the air out of this month long gap until the Pennsylvania primary, not to mention provide the GOP with all the ammo they need if BO gets the nomination. And actually, I'm quite surprised you just posted JS's email without mentioning yourself any of those (seemingly obvious) points.
TPM Reader MS foresees this line of attack:
Imagine this 30 second ad, run heavily next October. I think it would be devastating among undecided and swing voters."What does Barack Obama really believe in? His spritual teacher for 20 years has been Jeremiah Wright. Wright wedded Obama & his wife. Obama named his book from a sermon of Wright's. [insert video of favorable comment about Wright by Obama]. What has Jeremiah Wright taught Obama? [Insert rabid clip of Wright capped by "God Damn America!! God Damn America!!"] We need a solid patriot to lead our nation. Someone we can trust. Vote John McCain 2008."
--David Kurtz
Mississippi Justice
Trial lawyer Richard "Dickie" Scruggs unexpectedly pleads guilty to bribing judge.
--David Kurtz
If McCain Loses, the Terrorists Win
McCain: I "worry" that al Qaeda will attack in Iraq to tip election against me.
--David Kurtz
Take 2 in Michigan
Obama's Michigan co-chair tells TPM Election Central that there's "a lot of momentum" behind a do-over primary there.
--David Kurtz
Oy ... Not Good
From the Times ...
Federal prosecutors are investigating whether Gov. Eliot Spitzer used campaign funds in connection with his meetings with prostitutes, including payments for hotels or ground transportation, three people with knowledge of the investigation said.Prosecutors have asked the governor’s lawyers about the travel arrangements for three trips, including his Feb. 13 rendezvous with a prostitute at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington. The United States attorney’s office in Manhattan has also asked about the governor’s use of car services during trips to Washington.
The governor’s lawyers have begun consulting with a campaign finance expert who has long worked for Mr. Spitzer’s political organization to see whether campaign money was spent on the trips, including some as recently as last month, a person briefed on the investigation said.
--Josh Marshall
Don't Get It
Matt Cooper has a good post at Portfolio about the unfolding, ever-expanding Ferraro trainwreck. Like Cooper, it wasn't really the first thing Ferraro said or even the second. It took till the third round before I really got a sense of what she wasn't thinking. It became most clear in the chat show appearances where she said, I think in all seriousness, that Obama should have thanked her for saying what she said.
At a certain point I realized that for all the ancillary nonsense Ferraro is simply not capable of seeing Obama's campaign as anything but an African-American favorite son candidacy. Once you get that everything seems to fall into place.
Here's our show from Wednesday with some choice examples from her chat show marathon ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Bush
From the AP ...
Antique store owners in lower Manhattan, ticket vendors at India's Taj Mahal and Brazilian business executives heading to China all have one thing in common these days: They don't want U.S. dollars.Hit by a free fall with no end in sight, the once mighty U.S. dollar is no longer just crashing on currency markets and making life more expensive for American tourists and business people abroad; its clout is evaporating worldwide as foreign businesses and individuals turn to other currencies.
Experts say the bleak U.S. economic forecast means it will take years for the greenback to recover its value and prestige.
Negative dollar sentiment is growing in nations where the dollar was historically accepted as equal or better than local currency — and dollar aversion is even extending to some quarters in the United States.
--Josh Marshall
And Yet More
One of the most popular reader bloggers at the new TPMCafe is FlyOnTneWall and he/she has some thoughts on the Wright matter too.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader MO sees the writing on the wall ...
I have to point this out, Josh. Personal comments about Hillary and notwithstanding the Ferraro/Race flap that has permeated throughout this campaign, this Wright fellow troubles me more than anything. Not only the fact that he is Obama’s mentor and Obama has been going to this church for twenty years, but to make a statement such as “God Damn America” will be a brush fire that will be uncontrollable to contain. The GOP will piece that with Obama’s different take on ways to display patriotism and they will run him into the ground in the GE. Should he distance himself and force Wright (someone that loyal) out, then Obama is ready to be Commander in Chief. If not, he has the same loyalty issues as Hillary has with Mark Penn (in my opinion, her campaign’s greatest flaw).
TPM Reader TB responds ...
TPM Reader MO...Obama's "mentor"?Why is the Clinton Campaign is allowed to pound this argument that if she beats him in Pa., he can't beat McCain there in the fall, when the truth is that because of her sky high negatives, she is at a
disadvantage compared to Obama in a general election, and even though she can beat him in that state, for reasons I leave you to consider, the same polls give Obama a better chance against McCain.This new media fascination with the pastor of Obama's church is just a new section of the Orchestra playing the racial theme.
And finally TPM Reader JS ...
As much as I don't like this stuff, as an Obama supporter, he desperately needs to address this forcefully now so please press the issue in every way you can and make the Obama campaign know that even his supporters are going to lose faith in him if he doesn't come out soon and denounce AND reject this stuff ASAP.
--Josh Marshall
Will the Misery Never End?
Hillary agrees to what would be the 964th debate of the 2008 campaign, in Pennsylvania.
Late Update: It gets worse. Obama has accepted and proposes yet another debate, this one in North Carolina, with Katie Couric moderating.
Eyes. Glazing. Over.
--David Kurtz
The New Guv
From NY Mag (via FP Passport):
Paterson also displayed a rather awesome sense of humor. "Just so we don't have to go through this whole resignation thing again," one ballsy reporter asked, "have you ever patronized a prostitute?" Paterson thought for a minute. "Only the lobbyists," he said.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Campaign '08 Roundup #16
With almost six weeks until the next primary and with tensions already at a feverish peak, what will the Clinton and Obama campaigns focus their attentions on from now until Pennsylvania? We preview the long slog until the Keystone State in today's '08 Roundup edition of TPMtv ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Ben Craw
Trying to Get the Loser Label to Stick
Mark Penn: Pennsylvania will show that "Senator Obama really can't win the general election."
--David Kurtz
GOP Bookkeeping
How bad are the financial irregularities at the NRCC?
Here's a sampling:
* At year end 2006, the NRCC’s actual cash on hand was approximately $990,000 less than the amount reported to the FEC.* The actual cash on hand as of the NRCC’s most recent FEC report for January 31, 2008 (filed on February 20, 2008) was $740,000 less than the amount reported to the FEC.
Paul Kiel has more.
--David Kurtz
Pelosi: "The President Is Wrong And He Knows It"
Nancy Pelosi pops the President back on FISA.
--David Kurtz
Steven Waldman: What did the founding fathers believe about church and state?
--David Kurtz
What Ferraro Might Say
TPMCafe Reader CSCS: NY Gov-in-waiting Paterson is "lucky" he's black and blind.
--David Kurtz
Today's Must Read
"Stop playing politics with the past," President Bush cried this morning, as the House prepares to vote later today on the Administration-unfriendly version of the surveillance bill -- which offers no telecom immunity.
--David Kurtz
Quote of the Day
Retiring Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-VA): "The House Republican brand is so bad right now that if it were a dog food, they'd take it off the shelf."
--David Kurtz
Tell It Like It Is
This morning Obama's former pastor Jeremiah Wright is in the news again. They did a segment on him on Good Morning America. And the main attention is to a video that has surfaced of a sermon Wright gave in January. Fox News got it and here you can see it on Ben Smith's blog at The Politico. It's racially charged and will certainly get a lot of play, though I'm not sure there's much in it that doesn't come out of the sermon tradition of African-American Christianity with a 60s twist. Last week, Obama, who has denounced various of Wright's statements, told a Jewish audience, Wright "is like an old uncle who says things I don't always agree with." Watch it yourself and make your own judgments. For myself, when watching something like this, it is often difficult to distinguish between what I actually find offensive myself and what it is ingrained in me to believe others will find offensive. He's certainly not doing Obama any favors by talking like this about Obama in the midst of this campaign. Particulars aside, the political relevance is to show Wright as angry black man; and to tie him to Obama.
If Obama's the nominee, we will see no end of this kind of stuff. And there's probably some small benefit of getting a preview. But the simple fact is that we wouldn't be seeing this stuff now if it weren't for the fact that this is the kind of campaign Hillary Clinton's campaign has decided to wage -- often directly and at other times indirectly by not reining it in in her supporters when it crops up on its own. Wright is news today because Ferraro's been news yesterday. Are her comments racist? That's a loaded, too copious, word. And there've been cases where the Clinton team has gotten a bum rap on these matters. What I do know, however, is that Clinton's campaign and her surrogates have injected the subject of Obama's race into this campaign too many times now for it to be credible to believe that it is anything but a conscious strategy.
Lincoln's quote of Matthew 18:7 is instructive here: "Woe unto the world because of offenses; for it must needs be that offenses come, but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh."
It is insufficient to say that Republicans will do this in the fall so there's nothing to be lost in hearing it now from Democrats. Because by doing this now, as a Democratic campaign, they are mainstreaming the message. If Obama is the nominee, when this emerges again, no doubt in a harsher, more rancid incarnation, it will come pre-approved by dint of a Democratic campaign's imprimatur.
--Josh Marshall
Second Look on Fallon
Yesterday we reported at some length on the departure Adm. William Fallon, commander of Centcom. Then yesterday afternoon a reporter colleague told me that the real issue with Fallon wasn't Iran but something called "the pause."
With 'surges' and 'pauses' and various other bits of jargon floating around, it's a little hard to keep track. But essentially the 'pause' refers to how long we're going to put off drawing down our forces in Iraq. Fallon wanted a short pause, this colleague told me, and Petraeus wanted a long or (I think more likely) an indefinite one. Now Fred Kaplan at Slate and David Ignatius in the Post bring reports confirming that this was indeed the key issue.
So, not about Iran but Iraq -- and specifically whether we stay there indefinitely waiting on the El Dorado of political progress. Fallon wanted to start drawing down. His bosses disagreed. And now he's gone.
--Josh Marshall
More Tapes
The Pentagon has nearly 50 videotaped recordings of its interrogations of terrorism suspects.
--David Kurtz
For Reason Before She Was Against It?
Not sure quite what it means. But TPM Reader JB dug up this passage from a December 2006 article in the Times about what then seemed the likely prospect that a women and a black man would be competitive candidates in the 2008 Democratic primaries ...
“All evidence is that a white female has an advantage over a black male — for reasons of our cultural heritage,” said the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, the civil rights leader who ran for president in 1984 and 1988. Still, he said, for African-American and female candidates, “It’s easier — emphatically so.”Ms. Ferraro offered a similar sentiment. “I think it’s more realistic for a woman than it is for an African-American,” said Ms. Ferraro. “There is a certain amount of racism that exists in the United States — whether it’s conscious or not it’s true.”
“Women are 51 percent of the population,” she added.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Send in The Clown
Gerry Ferraro is catching a lot of flak these days. But here at TPM we want to thank her. It's been an exhausting primary season. And we've needed some comic relief in a big way. Saying Barack Obama was lucky to be black may only have been one more 'unfortunate' statement in a string of beauts this election cycle. But going on every show currently on the air to express her outrage at the response to her comments has simply been comedy gold. Check out some of the best moments in today's episode of TPMtv ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Move Over Hagee
McCain's new spirtual advisor says America was founded to destroy Islam.
--Josh Marshall
Disappearing Inconvenient Facts
The other night McClatchy broke the news that a huge Pentagon study of Iraqi archives had concluded that there was no Saddam-al Qaeda link. That's been followed by reports in other media on the contours of the report, which was supposed to be released today followed by a Pentagon briefing.
But not any more.
ABC News reports:
The Bush Administration apparently does not want a U.S. military study that found no direct connection between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda to get any attention. This morning, the Pentagon cancelled plans to send out a press release announcing the report's release and will no longer make the report available online.The report was to be posted on the Joint Forces Command website this afternoon, followed by a background briefing with the authors. No more. The report will be made available only to those who ask for it, and it will be sent via U.S. mail from Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Virginia.
It won't be emailed to reporters and it won't be posted online. …
Asked why the report would not be posted online and could not be emailed, the spokesman for Joint Forces Command said: "We're making the report available to anyone who wishes to have it, and we'll send it out via CD in the mail."
Another Pentagon official said initial press reports on the study made it "too politically sensitive."
Late Update: Needless to say, this is a clownish effort at best. Nothing prevents anyone from obtaining the report and publishing it in its entirety. Paul Kiel has more.
--David Kurtz
All in the Family
Will Bunch, on why "Archie Bunker's congresswoman" wasn't off-message for the Clinton campaign at all.
--David Kurtz
No Deal Yet
From a statement just put out by the U.S. Attorney's Office for SDNY:
In response to press speculation, MICHAEL J. GARCIA, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said: "There is no agreement between this Office and Governor Eliot Spitzer, relating to his resignation or any other matter."
--David Kurtz
CAPITOL HILL EVACUATED
U.S. Capitol building being evacuated because of air-space violation of no-fly zone over D.C., CNN reports.
Late Update: It appears to be an unintended incursion into the restricted airspace by a private plane.
--David Kurtz
Like Cats to Water
The House last night voted to create an outside panel to review ethics complaints. Let's just say that it passed over very strenuous objections from some quarters.
We've put together some of the best quotes from the debate.
My favorite, from Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS): "If you have a single ounce of self-preservation, you'll vote no."
--David Kurtz
Shoring Up the Financial Base
Hillary's top fundraisers will be sitting down to a private meeting with her today in D.C. for a pep talk and a wide-ranging look at the state of the race, TPM Election Central has learned.
--David Kurtz
Spitzer Resigns
Not a good sign when your criminal defense lawyers precede you into your resignation press conference.
The governor's resignation will be effective as of next Monday:
And that's it. Took no questions.
--David Kurtz
"Militant Unitarians"
Steven Waldman: "It’s as if progressives feel that if they can prove that the Founders were Deists rather than serious Christians, then that will strengthen the case for separation of church and state."
--David Kurtz
Unfortunate Choice of Words?
From Human Events magazine's pitch for their new "report" on Barack Obama (emphasis added) ...
Get your FREE PDF copy of HUMAN EVENTS' new special report - Barack Obama: EXPOSED! - when you sign up for our free email newsletters. It's the only way you'll get all the ammunition you need to end Obama's White House dreams once and for all.
Special thanks to TPM Reader KB for the tip ...
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Timeline!
TPMmuckraker puts together the sequence of events in the Spitzer investigation.
--David Kurtz
Spitzer Resignation Imminent
Aides say his resignation will come sometime this morning.
--David Kurtz
What Were the Feds After?
This morning's Washington Post suggests the FBI had been trying to catch Gov. Spitzer in the act for some time:
Weeks before a hotel meeting with a prostitute that threatens to derail his career, the FBI staked out New York Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer at the same hotel in an unsuccessful effort to catch him with a high-priced call girl, according to a person with knowledge of the investigation.The FBI placed a surveillance team on Spitzer at the Mayflower Hotel for the first time on Jan. 26, after concluding from a wiretapped conversation that he might try to meet with a prostitute when he traveled to Washington to attend a black-tie dinner, the source said Tuesday. …
The January stakeout at the Mayflower came roughly two weeks after a federal judge authorized investigators to intercept the escort service's telephone calls and text messages.
A team of agents from New York and Washington was hurriedly dispatched to the hotel after an escort service employee was heard on a wiretap calling the front desk to say that flowers were being sent to Spitzer and wanting to confirm that he would be there, said a source knowledgeable about the investigation who requested anonymity in order to speak freely.
Spitzer spent part of the day and evening at the hotel, but if he had a date from the escort service, the agents did not see her or she did not show up.
Spitzer was accompanied to Washington by members of his police detail, who were apparently unaware of the FBI surveillance even though an officer from the detail watched the governor's room from across the hall, through a cracked door.
This dovetails in some respects with what a lawyer reader was pointing me toward last night -- before the Post story came out. I yield the floor to TPM Reader BK:
But here is where it gets odd. The wire tap goes live toward the beginning of January. They listen in to numerous conversations between clients and the escort service owners/operators all through January and early February.Judging from the affidavit, they obviously have more than enough to bust all four employees and numerous johns. But they don't.
They sit on the wire until February 11, when Eliot Spitzer contacts the service. Importantly, the investigators would have known that Spitzer was a repeat user. So, if they bring charges in early February, they get the brothel owners, but they don't get the big prize - the moralizing Governor of New York state.
Were they waiting for him? I don't know. But look at the timing: Spitzer has his liason with the prostitute on February 12, and suddenly, the Feds wrap up their investigation. They file charges just three weeks later. They had their evidence.
This smells like they were sitting on the wire, knowing Spitzer was eventually going to call.
This thought had been rattling around in my head, too. Based on the financial transactions, the feds initially suspected some sort of scam against Spitzer or possibly his involvement in public corruption. But they quickly figured out this was about sex.
At that point, with the amount of money involved, they knew they had a high-dollar prostitution ring in their sights, and likely violations of money-laundering and tax laws. So it certainly made sense to continue the investigation. But the speed with which they brought charges after catching Spitzer in the act has puzzled me from the get-go.
--David Kurtz
Persona Non Grata
As attention has turn to other subjects down here, up in Canada suspicion over the Obama/Goolsbee leaks has focused in on Canadian Ambassador Michael Wilson. Wilson has been forced to concede that he spoke to the reporter who broke the story shortly before the story first aired but he has declined to explain what they discussed. Now Canadian opposition leaders are calling for his resignation.
--Josh Marshall
Mississippi Crossovers
I suspect partisans on either side will draw different interpretations from it. But here's another interesting tidbit out of the Mississippi exit poll. The conventional wisdom and to a significant degree the reality in many other states has been that Barack Obama has picked up the lion's share of Republican crossover voters. Not in Mississippi. According to MSNBC's exit numbers, Republicans made up either 12% or 13% of the voters in tonight's primary. And they went for Hillary Clinton by a decisive 3 to 1 margin.
--Josh Marshall
"High-ranking aide" tells the Albany Times-Union that Gov. Spitzer will resign on Wednesday.
--Josh Marshall
To the Victor, The Spoils
Obama eschewed the election night rally for sitdown interviews with the cable nets:
--David Kurtz
Playing With Fire -- And He Knew It
We get more details on precisely what Spitzer was allegedly doing that attracted bank attention, from Newsday:
Spitzer last year had wanted to wire transfer more than $10,000 from his branch to what turned out to be the front for the prostitution ring, QAT Consulting Group, which also uses a number of other names, in New Jersey, the sources said.But Spitzer had the money broken down into several smaller amounts of less than $10,000 each, apparently to avoid federal regulations requiring the reporting of the transfer of $10,000 or more, the sources said. The regulations are aim to help spot possible illegal business activities, such as fraud or drug deals.
Apparently, having second thoughts about even sending the total amount in this manner, Spitzer then asked that the bank take his name off the wires, the sources said.
Bank officials declined, however, saying that it was improper to do so and in any event, it was too late to do so, because the money already had been sent, the sources said.
The bank, as is required by law, filed an SAR, or Suspicious Activity Report, with the Internal Revenue Service, reporting the transfer of the money that exceeded $10,000, but had been broken down into smaller amounts, the sources said. …
The assumption, the sources said, was that Spitzer was being victimized either by a blackmailer or an impostor. The agents also speculated that perhaps the governor was involved in some sort of political corruption, the sources said.
--David Kurtz
Say It Ain't So
We just got an email from a longtime and prized reader, TPM Reader JS. And JS said that Ferraro's statement was simply a fact. And whatever outrage people feel, she says, people shouldn't be forced to shut up or stand down when they're simply saying things that are true, even if they're uncomfortable truths.
Now, I'm really not much for the sport of competitive outrage that's flying over all of our heads of late. So I'm just going to set aside whether the comment is offensive or outrageous. Let's just consider whether it's accurate.
Can anyone seriously claim that it's an asset to be an African-American in a US presidential race? Happily what we're now seeing is that it does not in itself seem to be an eliminating factor in a presidential race. But an advantage? There's no doubt that Obama's race is the central factor in allowing him to consolidate almost unanimous support from African-American voters, especially in the South. But African-Americans make up only about 13% of the population. And does anyone doubt that that advantage he gains there is not balanced at least to a substantial degree by resistance to voting for him among white voters? Why is Obama running so poorly among white voters tonight (compared to his rates in northern states) in Mississippi? And in South Carolina? We hear a lot about Sen. Clinton's bedrock of strength among non-college educated white voters. Do we really think that's simply a matter of appeal of Sen. Clinton? More speculatively, but I think no less true, is that a lot of the Farrakhan/Muslim/foreign influence stuff has more sticking power because of Obama's race.
Most of the same points could be made about the advantages and disadvantages Sen. Clinton is under because of her gender. In fact I think there's a pretty striking symmetry. It's clearly helping her with her big advantage among women voters, especially her generational peers. But we'd be foolish not to realize that some of Obama's big margins among white men are not simply a reflection of support for Obama.
You might support Obama or not, think he's qualified or an empty suit but suggesting he's only where he is now because he's black is something much worse than outrageous. It just seems obviously false.
--Josh Marshall
No Country for Young Governors
As we wait here for the returns to come in from Mississippi, it occurred to me that while I love living in New York City we've had sort of a rough time with the governors lately. There are some pretty obvious differences between the blowout of NJ Gov. Jim McGreevey's career and our Gov. Spitzer's. But through all the differences of money or no money and differing sexual orientations, there's also a pretty strong similarity. New Democratic governors brought in after a long period of Republican rule rapidly brought down by wildly reckless sexual behavior. All we need now is some Connecticut governor to get tripped up and we'll have the local trifecta. But then it occurred to me, what am I thinking: Connecticut Gov. John Rowland was forced to resign and was then thrown in the slammer just back in 2005. Admittedly his weaknesses were for luxury rather than carnality. But still three gubernatorial takedowns in four short years is a rough record for our area.
--Josh Marshall
Hey There, Big Spender
A couple of more data points emerged today about the underlying conduct by Eliot Spitzer that is now under federal investigation.
ABC News is reporting this evening that Spitzer moved "an estimated $40,000 through various accounts" in possible violation of federal law, according to federal investigators.
Earlier today, the New York Times reported that "Mr. Spitzer’s payments to the Emperor’s Club began sometime in the middle of 2007."
Even at the $4,500 a pop that Emperor's Club allegedly charged, you're talking about numerous assignations just in the last few monnths. Based on the wiretap from the night of Feb.13, it appears Spitzer was more in the $2,500 per night range. So as many as a dozen or more separate encounters, assuming that all $40,000 went to call girls.
While that's an awful lot of money to be spending on call girls in a relatively short period of time, $40,000 is a relatively small amount when it comes to money laundering. The movement of that amount of funds by a man who reportedly has considerable personal wealth would not be particularly suspicious. Assuming banking regulations required the filing of a Suspicious Activity Report (SAR), the amount of money involved was so minimal that it's surprising it caught the eye of the IRS.
Before Alberto Gonzales and the revelations surrounding the politicization of the Justice Department, a safe assumption would have been that the name of a sitting governor on a SAR would have been enough to catch the eye of any investigator, even if the amounts involved were relatively small. That's the gist of what happened here, according to various reports.
I hope that's true. I want it to be true. Based on the facts as we know them now, I tend to think it is true. But one of the sad legacies of the Bush Administration is the lingering doubt that now accompanies public corruption investigations.
Late Update: From the AP:
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a law enforcement official said Tuesday that Spitzer, in fact, had spent tens of thousands of dollars with the Emperors Club. Another official said the amount could be as high as $80,000. But it was not clear over what period of time that was spent.
$40,000? $80,000? But who's counting?